北极冻土中的碳排放能造成43万亿美元损失

北极冻土中的碳排放能造成43万亿美元损失

Increased greenhouse gas emissions1 from the release of carbon dioxide and methane2 contained in the Arctic permafrost could result in $43 trillion in additional economic damage by the end of the next century, according to researchers from the University of Cambridge and the University of Colorado. In a letter published today (21 September) in the journal Nature Climate Change, the researchers have for the first time modelled the economic impact caused by melting permafrost in the Arctic to the end of the twenty-second century, on top of the damage already predicted by climate and economic models.

The Arctic is warming at a rate which is twice the global average, due to anthropogenic, or human-caused, greenhouse gas emissions. If emissions continue to rise at their current rates, Arctic warming will lead to the widespread thawing3 of permafrost and the release of hundreds of billions of tonnes of methane and CO2 - about 1,700 gigatonnes of carbon are held in permafrost soils in the form of frozen organic matter.

Rising emissions will result in both economic and non-economic impacts, as well as a higher chance of catastrophic events, such as the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, increased flooding and extreme weather. Economic impacts directly affect a country's gross domestic product (GDP), such as the loss of agricultural output and the additional cost of air conditioning, while non-economic impacts include effects on human health and ecosystems4.

The researchers' models predict $43 trillion in economic damage could be caused by the release of these greenhouse gases, an amount equivalent to more than half the current annual output of the global economy. This brings the total predicted impact of climate change by 2200 to $369 trillion, up from $326 trillion - an increase of 13 percent.

"These results show just how much we need urgent action to slow the melting of the permafrost in order to minimise the scale of the release of greenhouse gases," said co-author Dr Chris Hope from the Cambridge Judge Business School.

1 emissions

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。

Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。

2 methane

n.甲烷，沼气

参考例句：

The blast was caused by pockets of methane gas that ignited.爆炸是由数袋甲烷气体着火引起的。

Methane may have extraterrestrial significance.甲烷具有星际意义。

3 thawing

n.熔化，融化v.（气候）解冻( thaw的现在分词 )；（态度、感情等）缓和；（冰、雪及冷冻食物）溶化；软化

参考例句：

The ice is thawing. 冰在融化。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

It had been snowing and thawing and the streets were sloppy. 天一直在下雪，雪又一直在融化，街上泥泞不堪。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

4 ecosystems

n.生态系统( ecosystem的名词复数 )

参考例句：

There are highly sensitive and delicately balanced ecosystems in the forest. 森林里有高度敏感、灵敏平衡的各种生态系统。 来自《简明英汉词典》

Madagascar's ecosystems range from rainforest to semi-desert. 马达加斯加生态系统类型多样，从雨林到半荒漠等不一而足。 来自辞典例句